Spartanburg Republicans to host three likely presidential hopefuls at county convention

Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum to address local GOP

By Jason Spencer
jason.spencer@shj.com

Published: Sunday, April 3, 2011 at 4:14 p.m.
Last Modified: Sunday, April 3, 2011 at 4:14 p.m.

It’s starting to feel like there’s a presidential race on the horizon.

Three likely 2012 presidential contenders — Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and ex-Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum — will address hundreds of local Republican activists Saturday at the Spartanburg County GOP Convention. County conventions feature a litany of speakers, the sometimes contentious election of party officers, and votes on delegates and resolutions to send to the state convention in May.

And in the buildup to a presidential contest, one that has been admittedly slow to start, conventions give candidates and their supporters a chance to meet and mingle with neighborhood-level activists.

“That’s why it’s so important for them to come to these early conventions, especially….Read more

Still trying to uncover the frontrunner

I have been puzzled lately by the lack of a clear early frontrunner in the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary. After all, in seven weeks it will be 2011 and we will be one year away from the first primaries. The GOP usually has one by now.

And given that the candidate who was perceived to be the early frontrunner has eventually won the nomination in every primary of the last 30 years, you would think the major GOP aspirants would be knocking each other down in an attempt to assume the title.

But since polls indicate no perceived frontrunner has emerged, I went looking for one. Using my Facebook profile and emails to friends, I listed the names of those considered most likely to make a bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

I asked respondents to rank the possible candidates in order starting with the one they feel is most likely to win the nomination. (Not necessarily their favorite, mind you, although it usually tends to work out that way, doesn’t it?) I offered the names of Barbour, Christie, Gingrich, Huckabee, Jindal, Palin, Pawlenty, and Romney and invited respondents to add other names if they wished.

While any result derived this way is about as unscientific as you can get, my goal was to get a general sense of who my friends see as the frontrunner – not the best loved or even most well-respected – just the one most people consider most likely to end up with the nomination after all is said and done.

Respondents were a cross section of Facebook friends, college buddies, family, friends, political insiders, casual observers, etc. – mostly from South Carolina. Given my profession, I run in a relatively politically astute and generally conservative circle.

My results were as follows:

1st Place: MITT ROMNEY. With the exception of a small number of “only if he was the last guy on earth” haters, nearly all other respondents ranked him in either1st or 2nd place.

2nd Place: JOHN THUNE. Not as many respondents mentioned him, but those who did, did so without my having even listed his name in the survey question and they ranked very high.

3rd Place: CHRIS CHRISTIE received a surprising number of 1st place votes. Republicans can’t resist the thought of potentially stealing New Jersey’s 15 electoral votes from Democrats, it seems.

4th Place: SARAH PALIN: While Hurricane Sarah’s star power may be a Category 5, respondents seem to think of her chances in terms of a tropical depression, ranking her between 3rd and 4th on average with a few 1st place votes. That being said, no other candidate received more mentions than Mama Grizzly.

5th Place: MIKE HUCKABEE. He got the 2nd most mentions behind SP but his average rank by my respondents was between 4th and 5th, even with some 1st place votes. I wonder if overexposure plays a role here. (Sarah, are you listening?)

6th Place: (9-way Tie) MIKE PENCE, PAUL RYAN, MICHAEL BLOOMBURG, MITCH DANIELS, HALEY BARBOUR, NEWT GINGRICH, BOBBY JINDAL, TIM PAWLENTY and RICK SANTORUM. Some of these got only a few mentions, others got a lot, but they all averaged noticeably lower than those mentioned previously. If any of them want to move up the ladder, they have a LOT of work to do. (Read: $$$) I gotta say, I was surprised to see Jindal, Barbour and Pawlenty this low after two years on just about every pundit’s “Watch List.” That said, you can expect one or more of those bunched up down here to rocket into the upper echelon closer to the primaries.

No Love: JEB BUSH, JOHN CORNYN, RUDY GIULIANI, DAVID PATRAEUS, JOHN BOLTON. None of my respondents even mentioned them.

Honorable Mention: MARCO RUBIO and JIM DeMINT. Both got some nice VP shout-outs from respondents. Marco even got a few sighs from the ladies because, well, he’s dreamy.

Now usually I would agree with those who say all this isn’t worth a bucket of warm spit; that a general perception of frontrunner status among my friends 21 months before the Republicans gather for their Tampa convention is as useless as a parachute at a spelling bee.

But I keep coming back to this thought: Since 1980, every candidate who was perceived to be the frontrunner one year prior to the South Carolina primary has gone on to win the South Carolina primary and eventually the GOP nomination. Since we are only one year and 13 weeks away from that South Carolina primary, you gotta wonder.

Where is the GOP frontrunner?

On the night of the midterm elections in 1998, several network and cable news channels cut to live feeds from the lawn of the Governor’s Mansion in Austin where reporters breathlessly informed America that Governor George W. Bush of Texas had been reelected convincingly and was now the favorite for the GOP nomination in 2000.

I was in a hotel ballroom full of Republicans and remember someone puzzling aloud: “Who decided that?” Shoulders shrugged but everyone seemed okay with having just watched the coveted status of frontrunner bestowed upon a candidate. After all, it wasn’t the best of nights for Republicans – particularly in South Carolina – so they were happy to hear something, anything, positive. And having a “frontrunner” qualified.

But as rehearsals begin for the political theater soon to be known as the 2012 Republican Presidential Primaries, one major roll has yet to be cast: Who will be the star? The GOP doesn’t have a Frontrunner. Republicans NEVER start production without a FRONTRUNNER!!!

• In 1988 VP George H. W. Bush was hand-picked by the director himself, Ronald Reagan.
• In 1996 Bob Dole started and finished in front of a crowded (and somewhat odd) field of hopefuls.
• In 2000, Bush the Younger was tapped early and, despite an unexpected – and deeply resented – challenge from the charismaverick John McCain (get it?), never trailed.
• In 2008 McCain started with the big dressing room with the star on the door – was evicted from it – and clawed his way back in just in time for the curtain to go up.

But this time the playbill is far less clear. Not since the 1980 dustup between Reagan and John Connally has there been this much debate over whose name should go first on the marquee with just under two years to go before showtime.

In the days right after this month’s midterm elections, CNN conducted a survey among Republicans that showed Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in a statistical tie with around 20% followed by Sarah Palin at14% and Newt Gingrich with 12% and five others in single digits.

So what? Why do Republicans need a clear “frontrunner” twenty-one months before their Tampa, Florida convention?

Well, they don’t, really. Nevertheless, they usually have one by now and the title is very important because, in the Republican Party, early frontrunner status is the common denominator of every eventual winner since (and perhaps including) Reagan.

This is because, in primaires, Republicans tend to dutifully go home with the girl they brought to the dance, even if they meet one along the way they like a little more. Just ask McCain in ’00. Democrats, on the other hand, will start the night with one girl, meet a prettier one, and leave their date hanging in a New Hampshire minute. Just ask Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown in ‘92, and Hillary Clinton in ’08.

Does the current lack of a clear frontrunner mean there is a new paradigm in Republican politics and the 30 year trend of frontrunner domination is about to come to an end?

Well, we are about seven weeks from being one year away from the first of the 2012 primaries and if I were one of those top GOP prospects, I would be making every move I could think of to get to the front between now and Christmas, just in case the answer is no.

Worth the Read: Most partisan Senate ever? Why it’s been worse

By NBC’s Ken Strickland, Senate producer

About the series: With a sour economy and an increasingly anxious American public, the workings of Washington are inextricably linked to electoral politics headed into this year’s midterms. NBC’s Ken Strickland sat down with nine lawmakers who will depart from the Senate after this year. Together, they represent 158 years of Senate service and offer unique insights into how the Senate works and how it has changed. Read more about the series here.

The U.S. Senate’s polarizing debate and passage of three monumental bills over the past two years have led most Americans to believe that Republicans and Democrats simply cannot — or will not — work together. The economic stimulus, health care, and financial reform bills — trillions of dollars worth of legislation that touched every citizen — were all essentially party-line votes.

An examination of senators’ voting practices last year inspired this headline from a Congressional Quarterly analysis: “2009 Was The Most Partisan Year Ever.”

But ask the men and women who have actually served in the chamber and you’ll hear a less rancorous tune.

Almost all of the senators who are retiring or were defeated in their primary elections this year say that it’s hardly the most partisan of times. One goes so far as to call such a notion “absurd.” History is replete, they say, with more intense periods of animosity, more anger, and violence.

To read full article, click here.

Worth the read: Is the Tea Party Becoming the New Grand Old Party?

By LIZ SIDOTI AP National Political Writer

WASHINGTON September 2, 2010 (AP)

Is the tea party the new Republican Party? The grass-roots network of fed-up conservative-libertarian voters displayed its power in its biggest triumph of the election year: the toppling of Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska’s GOP primary. Political novice Joe Miller is the fifth tea party insurgent to win a GOP Senate nominating contest, an upset that few, if any, saw coming.

With the stunning outcome, the fledgling tea party coalition and voters who identify with its anti-tax, anti-spending sentiments proved that democracy is alive and well — within the Republican Party. Don’t like who is representing you? Rise up, fire them and choose someone new.

The tea party has taken hold in the Grand Old Party, unseating lawmakers, capturing nominations for open seats and forcing Republicans to recalibrate both their campaign strategy and issues agenda. Out is talk of delivering federal dollars back home; in is talk of fiscal discipline.

Within minutes of Murkowski conceding late Tuesday night, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., was among the conservative Republicans cheering Miller.

“He pulled off the upset victory of the year because he ran on principles and because Alaskans, like all Americans, want to stop the massive spending, bailouts and debt that are bankrupting our country,” said DeMint.

Read full article here.

Worth your time: WSJ article on DeMint

By STEVE MOORE

‘I’d rather lose with Pat Toomey than win with Arlen Specter any day.” That’s South Carolina Republican Jim DeMint defending his Senate Conservatives Fund, a new PAC that has taken Washington by storm.

The fund-raising group has already helped eight underdog Reaganite candidates win Republican Senate primaries this year. In two years, the fund has raised and spent nearly $2 million from nearly 50,000 individual contributors.

Mr. DeMint’s mission is to bring more Jim DeMints to the Senate—that is, people with an unfailing antagonism to big government. But his string of victories, often against establishment candidates, has many of his Republican colleagues grumbling. They say Mr. DeMint is pushing candidates through the primaries who are too far to the right to take back vulnerable seats from Democrats in November. Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott recently spoke for many in the party when he said it didn’t need anymore “Jim DeMint disciples.”

Over the past five years, Mr. DeMint has established himself as the pre-eminent conservative in Congress—he has a near perfect National Taxpayer Union rating—with Tom Coburn of Oklahoma a close second. As we eat lunch at Mr. DeMint’s favorite restaurant in his hometown of Greenville, our conversation is often interrupted by well-wishers thrilled to see their senator in person and all with pretty much the same message: “Keep fighting those big spenders.” Read full article here.

2010 Elections: Big Potential for Republican Governor, Redistricting Wins

POLITICS DAILY, by Lou Cannon, Correspondent – 8/22/10

It is a recurrent conceit of Democrats and Republicans alike that a great political realignment that will produce a lasting majority lurks just around the corner. In the more than two decades since Ronald Reagan left the White House, the U.S. electorate has been divided roughly equally. But when President George W. Bush won re-election in 2004, his strategist Karl Rove interpreted the outcome as a harbinger of long-term Republican control. Rove wasn’t alone in this view. With the GOP holding the White House and Congress and a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, some Democrats feared that all three branches of government might be irretrievably lost. Instead, the Democrats in 2006 regained both houses of Congress, a prelude to Barack Obama’s victory two years later.

After the “change election” of 2008, the new fad was that the Democrats were the party of the future and Republicans the party of the past. Democrats and their cheerleaders indulged in puffy analysis about how Republicans were demographically doomed because their base was old, white, and male. In this realignment narrative, Democrats were ascendant because they were the choice of women, gays, younger voters, Latinos and independents. But with economic recovery stalled and independents disenchanted with the Obama administration, this theory looks increasingly half-baked. No one knows what the future holds, but with less than 80 days to go before the 2010 midterms, Democrats are scrambling to hold the House and keep Senate losses to a minimum. Charlie Cook, an independent political analyst, expects Republicans to gain between 35 and 45 House seats in November, more probably in the upper range of this forecast. They need 39 to retake the House.

Read full article here.

2010 The race for Governor- In a word: BORING

So far, the race to succeed Mark Sanford has been pretty darn boring – on both sides of the political equation. To win the nod, a candidate must get 50% plus or face a run off. Right now, one race seems predictable and one does not:

If possible, the Democrats have run a more boring race than the Republicans.  Rex’s name ID has not done him much good in terms of fundraising, while Sheheen, has been steady; not really slow perhaps, but steady. The senator from Kershaw appears in good shape to win the nomination and  has a good bit of appeal with moderate conservatives, which might help him some in the fall if the GOP run off takes an even harder turn to the Right. Still, a Sheheen victory in November would be a shocker. There is no overriding issue, such as video poker, to get him the outside help and funding such as that delivered to Jim Hodges in the past.

Aside from Bauer’s attempts to set himself apart with some controversial comments, and Haley’s regular broadsides directed to Barrett, this has been a snoozer. Our own unscientific “man on the street” polling, suggests a McMaster-Barrett run off is to be expected. Some like Bauer’s tone and, while they agree with his point, just don’t seem to be inclined to vote for him. Haley has and will continue to appeal to the Sanford Libertarians, but has not managed to raise the cash or the profile, we think, to finish more than fourth. So what about AG McMaster and Congressman Barrett? McMaster is the most well-known, with the party base from the mountains to the coast. He should be, afterall, having served as party chairman, run unsuccessfully and then successfully statewide for a total of four times. Barrett’s challenge has been to raise his name ID, and with some help from Haley, has appeared to have done that considerably. The contrast we do see here is that McMaster’s focus seems to be as much on his past (Reagan appointee, chairman etc) as it is on the future. He is a known quantity who must now, and probably in a run off, get folks who vote for Bauer or Haley to come his way. This might be tough.  Not impossible, but tough. Barrett’s message has been jobs, jobs, jobs which is on a lot of people’s minds. But whether he has been able to capture the attention of folks who did not know him previously, that’s the trick. There are those who still maintain you can’t ever underestimate Bauer, with good reason. Still, we look for a Barrett v. McMaster showdown starting on the morning after the June 8th Primary. It won’t be boring after that, we hope. 

Either way, stay tuned and check your emails as well as www.felkelgroup.com as we continue to offer our thoughts on the pulse and perceptions of the race. CF.

How Lindsey Graham Works the White House

Sen. Lindsey Graham is profiled in the attached piece from Newsweek. It is definitely worth your taking the time to read. Like him or not (and we at FG really do like him), this piece is insightful on how South Carolina’s senior senator sees his role and his responsibility.

Learning to love Lindsey: 

Barack Obama and GOP Senator Lindsey Graham disagree on almost everything—except the need to work together.

By Katie Connolly and Weston Kosova | NEWSWEEK

Published Mar 5, 2010

From the magazine issue dated Mar 15, 2010

Read Article

You Should Read: Winthrop Poll findings on SC gov candidates

An article by Jim Davenport was posted this morning on The State Newspaper’s website: Winthrop Poll: SC gov candidates hardly known. A small excerpt is listed below as well as a link to view the poll results.

Among the Winthrop Poll findings:

• When it comes to favorability ratings, when you compare the results received by Barack Obama, Lindsey Graham, Jim DeMint, the Congress, Michelle Obama, and Jenny Sanford, South Carolinians gave the highest marks to Michelle Obama—with an overall favorability rating of 58.1 percent, followed closely by Jenny Sanford, with 54.8 percent.  Jim DeMint holds a slight approval-ratings edge over Lindsey Graham—3.2 percent among all respondents—but when only Republicans are looked at, DeMint surpasses Graham by 16.4 percent in the favorability department.

• Overall, almost one-in-four South Carolinians approves of the way Congress is handling its job. But almost 2-out-of-3 don’t and more than 1-in-10 aren’t sure how they feel. Republicans show the most disapproval of Washington, with over 80 percent giving a thumbs-down. Meanwhile, almost 70 percent of their Independent counterparts view Congress negatively.

• South Carolinians give First Lady Michelle Obama an almost 60 percent approval rating—over 10 percent higher than husband Barack Obama. On the other hand, Democrats give both Obamas an almost identical favorability rating of a whopping 85-plus percent.

• Poll results are heartening for Jenny Sanford’s possible political aspirations. Among Republicans, almost 65 percent had a favorable opinion of their first lady. And, even though while out promoting her New York Times best-seller  “Staying True,” Sanford said she did not enjoy being first lady, almost 55 percent of South Carolinians said they were pleased with her.

• While respondents weren’t told that the names of the gubernatorial candidates being read to them were running for their respective party’s nomination, or what their current position or political affiliation is, when it comes to favorability among the Republican and Democratic candidates for governor,  Andre Bauer—who recently created a firestorm by likening welfare recipients to stray animals—received the highest rating among all respondents, edging out Henry McMaster by slightly over 2 percent. 

• Among solely Republican respondents, however, McMaster edged Bauer by 4-plus percent.

• Democrats have their work cut out for them if they want South Carolinians to know who their candidates for governor are. On average, over 75 percent of South Carolinians said they did not know enough about Dwight Drake, Robert Ford, Jim Rex or Vincent Sheheen (Mullins McCloud has withdrawn from the race) to offer a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them.

• Less than 10 percent of SC Republicans feel the economy is doing either very or fairly good. Over double the amount of SC Democrats feel that way, while SC Independents fall somewhere between the two. No matter what their political affiliation, almost 4-in-10 South Carolinians think the national economy is very bad.

• Almost 70 percent of SC says the past year has hurt their state’s image.

• Almost 60 percent of respondents said they will be spending the same, or more, money as they would have in a normal year, on vacations in 2010.

• Almost one-quarter of those polled said they used the Internet to visit social networking sites.

• During the past 12 months, almost 20 percent of South Carolinians were often or sometimes worried that their food would run out before they could afford to buy more.

• Almost 95 percent of South Carolinians describe themselves as “very happy” or “somewhat happy.”

Click here to view the complete results.

Results of Winthrop Poll of SC Are In