By Chip Felkel, CEO Felkel Group
A brief disclaimer: had Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi decided to run for president, I would be actively working on his behalf here in South Carolina as a result of a long-standing friendship. He would make a great president for many reasons, not the least of which is the measured and disciplined approach he took in deciding not to run. As the field begins to develop, who will jump in and just who will emerge as a serious front runner? I am not sure I can answer either question but what I do know is that to win in November Republicans must nominate someone who, in the general election, will appeal well beyond the boundaries of GOP precinct meetings, county and state conventions and those wacky Iowa caucuses.
Too many GOP activists can’t handle the truth. We won’t win back the White House by nominating someone who only appeals to their brand of Republicanism. It just won’t work. Politics is after all, a game of addition, not subtraction. In the 2010 elections, 37% of those casting ballots referred to themselves as Republicans, 37% called themselves Democrats. The GOP must find a way to capture the majority of that 26% who steadfastly cling to the label of Independent. The good news is that we are a center-right country and most Independents agree with Republicans on the issues. Nominating someone, however, who only appeals to the hard core activist won’t add up to success. This is the hard cold reality.
The goal of the 2012 GOP Primary is to nominate a conservative as the party’s standard bearer who can wage a successful race against the incumbent which means winning in places like Ohio, New Mexico, and Colorado and not just South Carolina. So far, much of the buzz seems around people who in all frankness don’t have a shot. It is not all about social issues, though they are very important. It is not all about spending, though this too is critical. It is not all about immigration or the stretching of our military resources in places where the word democracy is itself quite foreign, though they both must be addressed as well. It is about leadership. It is about successfully putting a conservative in the White House to get our country back in the right direction. So far GOP activists seem to care less about winning than they do about being right on every single issue. And people, we really need to win.
What we don’t need is someone focused on divisive class warfare and demagoguery; we have one of those in the White House already. And, while I can’t honestly say who we need, I have a pretty good idea of what we need to win in November 2012. I am looking for directness, not just bluntness. I am looking for proven success, someone will to take tough, unpopular positions and actually lead. We need substance on policy matters and not just personality; this is after all a race to be the leader of the free world not a reality show competition. We need someone who will speak the truth, even when it offends those in his or her own party. And, we need someone who will stand up to those who erroneously tout the “my way or the highway” attitude and remind them that this country was never set up to work that way. Just who in the field can do these things? Or perhaps the better question is just who will? At this point it appears the process will be long, stretching out into mid-June before a clear nominee emerges. We have a professor, a couple of multimillionaires, a preacher turned governor turned commentator, a self-proclaimed tea partier, a libertarian, a former senator and another governor, all with an array of ideas, issues, and challenges. Who among them can navigate the pitfalls of technology driven primary politics, and who, if nominated can right this ship by appealing to those key independents and win in the fall? Perhaps one of the current field can do this, but right now I am not sure. Perhaps, others will get in? First, the GOP has to decide if they really want to win.


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